Thursday, January 27, 2011

Lawrence Solomon: Has the IPCC discovered the Sun?

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/01/25/lawrence-solomon-has-the-ipcc-discovered-the-sun/


The IPCC is investigating the Sun as a driver of global warming
The IPCC for the first time will investigate “in depth” the role of global cosmic rays in climate change, according to a report last week in the Hindustan Times.  Many solar and space scientists believe that cosmic rays, whose ability to enter Earth’s atmosphere is regulated by the Sun, are a dominant factor in global warming.
The turnaround in the IPCC position was announced by the chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, in a communication with India’s Environment Minister, Jairam Ramesh. The announcement followed the release of a paper by U R Rao, the former chairman of Indian Space Research Organization, that showed cosmic rays alone were responsible for 40% of global warming. These findings by one of Pachauri’s most distinguished countrymen, rebutted IPCC claims that carbon dioxide and other man-made causes were responsible for more than 90% of global warming.  Ramesh, who commissioned Rao’s paper, in 2009 had also released a report rebutting the IPCC’s claims that Himalayan glaciers would melt by 2035. The IPCC subsequently retracted its claims in an embarrassment now known as “Glaciergate.”
Until now, the IPCC has argued that the Sun is all-but-irrelevant to global warming, consistent with the IPCC’s very mandate, which dismisses the Sun as a major factor worthy of investigation. Ramesh is hopeful that Pauchari and the IPCC will now open their minds to dissenting scientists. ““There is a groupthink in climate science today,” the minister explained. “Anyone who raises alternative climate theories is immediately branded as a climate atheist in an atmosphere of climate evangelists.”
The Danish National Space Center has pioneered the theory that cosmic rays, by seeding clouds, regulate Earth’s climate – the Danes astounded the scientific world when they actually created clouds in a chamber on Earth. A photo of the path-breaking Danish cloud chamber, and a brief explanation of the science, can be found here.

Friday, January 14, 2011

Good News: Price of Oil Will Hold Relatively Steady Through 2035. It May Even Fall in Price

http://milliondollarway.blogspot.com/2011/01/good-news-price-of-oil-will-hold.html


Good News: Price of Oil Will Hold Relatively Steady Through 2035. It May Even Fall in Price

That's what the US government says (Energy Information Administration).


The EIA, according to wikipedia, is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.


The link is here. The source document is here -- this is the government's 12-page PDF document.


The graph has an upper estimate, a lower estimate, and an "average" estimate.


The "average" estimate, or the consensus estimate, shows that "we" don't hit $100 oil until 2015, with a steady rise from $60 to $100 between 2009 and 2015. And from there, a nice smooth increase to $125 in 2035. So, it looks like it's safe to keep buying those SUVs, and Ford F-450's.


In fact, it might even be better than that. The agency's "lower" estimate suggests that there could be a nice smooth drop in the price of oil from $60 in 2009 to $50 in 2015 and then remain stable (at $50) through 2035. Forget the SUVs and Ford F-450's, buy the Winnebago of your dreams.


But, there must be some real pessimists in the agency. The pessimists (or realists?) suggest a fairly steep rise from $60 in 2009 to $150 in 2015, and then slightly slower, but steady, increase to $200 in 2035. If that's as bad as it gets, I guess we can live with that.


The optimistic assumptions are based on a significant increase in oil production between now and then.
They cite long term potential supply increases in resource rich non-OPEC areas. Brazil, Russia, Kazakhstan, and also an increase in American production by 2035.
This would suggest that "Peak Oil Theory" is not an issue at least through 2035.


Maybe the EIA feels the Bakken has more recoverable oil than even the most optimistic.


Meanwhile, Reuters has an article today about oil nearing $100/bbl. OPEC says it won't hold any meeting to discuss production unless oil goes over $100/bbl, but will let members pump what they want. You really think at $90/bbl, OPEC members aren't pumping as fast as they can? Maybe not; maybe they are sticking to their quotas and maybe they are waiting for $100 oil.